Microsoft's dwindling market share
By apexwm, 8 October, 2010 03:10
Market share trends are interesting reports to watch, as they are a good forecast of where things are going. Once trends start to gain momentum, they have a tendency to stay on that path. What has been interesting is the amount of market share that Microsoft has been losing in various areas over the past few years. In web browsers, phones, and even desktop operating systems. The playing field is starting to level out, which is good for the consumers.
In the September 2010 report, NetMarketShare shows Microsoft IE and Windows at record lows within the past several years. The decline of IE is nothing new. Starting in 2006 with the numerous problems of Windows Vista, it seems that Firefox gained a lot of ground and started really making an appearance on the charts, at the expense of IE. As of September 2010, IE is at 59.65%, Firefox at 22.96%, Chrome at 7.98%, and the remaining bunch pulling up the rest. At first I thought IE might make a small recovery with the launch of Windows 7. However, I think the root cause of IE's decline is due to many factors, and users are opting out of using IE and using other browsers like Firefox and Chrome. So it appears that the operating system has nothing to do with browser trends. This makes a pretty big statement actually, because it means users are going out of their way to avoid the built-in browser (IE), and installing an alternative and making the switch. IE saw a very small increase in June and July of about 1%, right around the time Windows 7 was taking off, but after the dust settled, is back down to levels before June and is at a low. NetMarketShare seems to favor Microsoft the most of several trend providers. W3Schools.org, who tend to show lower Microsoft levels, show IE at 31.1%, Firefox at 45.1%, Chrome at 17.3%. At first this may seem unfathomable, however I checked reports from our own logs which shows IE at 41.86%, Firefox at 42.82%, and Chrome at 4.88%. It's clear that Microsoft is in trouble in the web browser wars.
What's also surprised me is the decline of Windows itself, which is Microsoft's prized possession. Windows still dominates the operating system market, but even with the release of Windows 7, is still declining. While Microsoft is reporting supposed record sales of Windows 7, Windows usage as a whole is declining. In September 2010, NetMarketShare showed Windows at 91.08% (declining), Mac OS X holding at 5.03%, Linux declining to .85%, and others holding up the rest. W3Schools.org shows Windows at 87.1% (declining), Mac OS X increasing to 7.2%, and Linux holding at 4.6%. It's not really the total market share percentage that Windows has that is interesting, but more with the declining trend.
What does this mean? What is Microsoft going to do about it? It will be interesting to see how things play out in the next couple of years.
Talkback
Also interesting is that to keep their market share in OSes shipped with new
PCs, Microsoft must almost give Windows 7 away for free to avoid manufacturers
looking for free alternatives (linux).
Not a nice perspective. The OS has become less and less relevant anyway. Windows
7 could well be their last version of Windows.
Gertvs 8 October, 2010 11:23
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I remember saying about four years ago, to stem the hemmorage of users and
money, Microsoft should consider making MS Office for Linux. Large corporations
looking at their IT services have a few options ahead of them: upgrade and pay
for new Windows and MS Office licenses, the ideal circumstance for Microsoft;
stick with the ten year old OS and Office suite, which might look alright in
numbers for market share, but doesn't earn MS any money unless they have a time
limit on their license agreement; or thirdly, a company could migrate platforms
entirely, move to Linux and OpenOffice.org. Now, some companies (a lot) are
hesitant to do this because of training and compatibility concerns. In my opinion,
these are the ones likely to stick with the old versions rather than upgrade.
If MS made Office for Linux, this would turn two groups of non-customers (the
old version users, and the ones who want to try linux but are still afraid of
compatibility) into Office customers. So MS doesn't make any money off the OS
sale in this case, making a little off software sales when you weren't going
to make any at all is a net gain, to me. I doubt it will ever happen, at least
with Ballmer at the helm, and I'm pretty sure I don't WANT it to happen, but
it would be a smart move to stop the constant outflow of money and customers.
NoobixCube 11 October, 2010 00:30
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We already have Microsoft Office for Linux (on Wine and Virtual Machines).
Unfortunately, this is not a long term solution. Microsoft is bent on retaining customers by kidnapping their data in proprietary formats (even some that don't belong to them {i4i}).
So, the solution CAN NOT involve Microsoft until they learn how to fight a
clean fight.
brentrbrian 11 October, 2010 03:13
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NoobixCube : Thanks for the comments. My theory on why Microsoft hasn't written
much software other than for Windows, is because they are afraid of losing their
tight grip on the vast majority of PCs out there that are currently running
Windows. If they lose this grip and their control of customers, their chance
of holding on to these customers is slim in my opinion. Now, they did release
Office for Mac, and recently released Office 2011 for Mac. However, it is not
up to par with the Windows Office suite. It lacks features and is also VERY
buggy. I don't know if this is an attempt to make Apple look bad? Maybe frustrations
will make people think they need Windows? I don't know Microsoft's intentions
in releasing software for the Mac platform. Personally I do understand that
migrating from MS Office to OpenOffice is a challenge especially if existing
documents need to be preserved. However, moving to Office 2007 had similar challenges
anyway. I think companies just need to make the plunge if they want to save
themselves from the cost and maintenance headache of Windows. Otherwise, they
can stick with Microsoft and keep their checkbook close by.
apexwm 11 October, 2010 03:34
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Microsoft are even in competition with their past. Whilst some of the people
who are sticking to XP (and even W98, 2000) are just short of money and would
never be of interest to them, a whole bunch of them are dedicated enthusiasts
who see no reason to upgrade. Loosing market share to yourself is a pretty neat
trick, nearly as bizzare as building a business out of selling folk stuff they
have already bought from you.
bobharvey 11 October, 2010 05:45
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I still don't understand why the competition commission has not investigated
computer retailers and manufacturers over this. I've recently attempted to purchase
computers without an OS to have my business declined by the mail order houses
and been told by small independent retailers that they are 'not allowed' to
sell computers without windows. For 20 years this has been one of the most blatent
exploitations of monopoly power since the days of the East India company, yet
the watchdogs in our society continue to slumber on. The sound of their snoring
is deafening.
bobharvey 11 October, 2010 05:49
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Bobharvey: At the risk of advertising, try www.overclockers.co.uk. This company
offers PC bundles without Windows, and is where I bought my latest machine from.
Chris Rankin 11 October, 2010 08:53
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@bobharvey, I have to agree with you. Trying to buy a computer without windows
is almost impossible. While this adds you to their ranks of counted users, and
sold units, it is padding the figures. They don't know how many people get home
and overwrite the disk with Linux. Luckily I live 12 miles from a big Fry's
store, and I can buy the parts and build my own, which puts the choice of operating
systems back in my hands. It isn't right that Redmond decides which OS I run.
There are a few manufacturers that will sell you a computer, pre-loaded with
Linux, but they are usually the low end machines, and you have to order them.
ator1940 11 October, 2010 13:48
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The issue with buying PCs that only come bundled with Windows is very frustrating. Dell comes close to selling machines with no OS, with their offering of PCs with "FreeDOS". However, the cost of these is more than machines with Windows on them. Then there's the PCs with Ubuntu which have dwindled down to a couple of PCs in the US, and none offered in other areas. I don't see why machines can't be offered with no OS. Hardware is hardware, regardless of what OS is pre-installed. At the factory, the hard disk is left clean and no image is installed on it. This should require less labor and ideally, should drive the cost down. There must be some sort of incentive or pressure from Microsoft on this one, that's the only thing that makes any sense. The reasons that Windows PCs are cheaper vary, however it seems to all come down to the fact that 3rd parties pay quite a price to have their bloatware bundled with Windows, which drives down the cost of the PC.
Being a minority like Linux is part of the reason for all of this. People aren't familiar with it, and therefore the demand for it isn't as high as Windows. I think some of the things that are going to help Linux market share are the following: a) Better marketing to make people more aware of what it is, and how it can work for them, b) Initiative of people to wipe Windows, and install Linux themselves. Rumors about Linux being difficult to install are outdated, c) Documentation for new users to follow and install Linux themselves. Fedora and Ubuntu already have this, but I prefer Fedora as its documentation is very good and complete for new users, d) Continued efforts by Microsoft to release flawed software to force customers to leave, and e) Continued economic downtrend to force companies to trim costs and switch to Linux.
My hats off to Dell for making an attempt to sell machines with Linux over
the years. Recently I had a good experience dealing with the Dell OpenManage
Linux team, who were very helpful. So Dell still employs people that know Linux,
but it's in pockets.
apexwm 11 October, 2010 17:39
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I wouldn't call 320 dollars free!! Sure Windows comes with PC's but you pay
for ever ridiculous cent of it
!
philipk88 11 October, 2010 23:07
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I would be surprized if OEMs didn't pay a MS Windows license fee on every computer (or even CPU) they sell, regardless of which OS is actually loaded on the system.
Microsoft has been known to pull the same stunt on schools/school districts and other enterprises and organizations, since way back when Apple was the only competition.
Anyone care to give me odds?
bswiss 12 October, 2010 00:04
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As one of the dinosaurs mentioned by Bob Harvey earlier, I tend to stick with old operating systems / programmes until they are clearly not viable. For my business system (one of!), I made the change to Firefox when Microsoft IE went from 6 to version 7. Unfortunately the migration made my pc operate very slowly and ultimately crash.
Not everyone buys new computers with ever growing processing power, yet I think
this is what Microsoft expects from its users. If I had the courage, I'd switch
over totally to Open Source solutions, but unfortunately, perhaps, MS O/S is
too familiar.
228097 12 October, 2010 09:24
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228097, You had to learn to use windows didn't you? Linux has gotten to the
point of being easier to use than windows. And, the number of "familiar"
software packages are getting more common every day. Anyone who has used MS
Office can use Open Office. As for being a dinosaur, I just turned 70, and I
made the switch 10 years ago, so if if an old fart like me can learn, then anyone
should be able to. It is that first step that is the hardest, but in the end,
you will be glad you made the switch.
ator1940 12 October, 2010 15:19
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@228097 : Just to give you a reference of what Linux can run on, I can run Fedora 13 with the Gnome desktop environment, on a Pentium II system with 256 of RAM. This includes the latest versions of Firefox and all of the other applications. It's not extremely fast, but it works. However, I believe the Fedora installer needs 512 MB of RAM now, for some reason. Even though Linux will run on 256 MB just fine.
@ator1940 : Great points on the ease and use of Linux. Unfortunately rumors
still circulate about Linux being "difficult", even though the people
that say that probably haven't seen Linux within the past 5 years or so.
apexwm 12 October, 2010 21:58
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Excellent point @bobharvey. In a competitive market, the interests of the corporation are aligned with those of their customers. In a monopoly situation, the monopoly's customers *are* their competitors. They have to resort to tactics like "planned obsolescence" (http://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Planned_Obsolescence) in order to avoid saturating their market and destroying their growth prospects. It's sort of similar to cancers or parasites who thrive and grow unbounded until they overwhelm their hosts' (in this case, the market's) ability to feed them... at which point they starve.
Planned obsolescence eventually means systematically screwing your existing
customers by building things that break or deteriorate over time. The monopoly
corporation's interests are *completely* opposite to those of their customers.
So, eventually the market routes around the monopoly. That's what the free/open
source software movement is all about. To stick with the biological metaphors,
it's the market's immune system routing around the disease and helping the body
to cut off its blood/nutrition/air supply. Let's hope it works.
lightweight 12 October, 2010 23:28
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That's nonsense. MS Office in Wine or virtual machines is not written for Linux.
Running anything in Wine or a virtual machine is inefficient. What a stupid
solution.
perspectoff 14 October, 2010 15:37
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HP computers now come with their hard drive pre-formatted with several partitions, more easily allowing the installation of other operating systems alongside Windows. In the past, Windows was installed occupying the entire hard drive. Now HP recognizes that people want other OSs.
IBM also is supplying computers for use with large Linux-based supercomputers.
So the biggest computer manufacturers are clearly participating in and enabling
the Linux revolution.
This is a sea change for this gigantic OEM.
HP has supplied computers for many big Linux projects, including the movie
Avatar, which was made with Ubuntu and HP computers.
perspectoff 14 October, 2010 15:41
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Ubuntu Ver. 10.10 64-bit is a dream to install and use. New features permit
the automatic installation of third party drivers and software. The alpha version
of Adobe Flash Player works without a hitch. I have always liked WordPerfect.
However, OpenOffice is an exceptional office suite, and though it doesn't have
the Reveal Codes command present in WordPerfect, it is certainly very capable
of converting MS Office documents to odf format without data loss and very few,
if any, formatting problems. I replaced the XP Pro operating system on my wife's
desktop computer nearly a year ago. Installing Ubuntu 10.04 on the Asus T-3
was far easier than installing XP for which many drivers were missing (it was
originally designed for Vista, but I consider Vista an unmitigated disaster).
Now that Flash Player is available for 64-bit Linux, she loves her computer.
A big added bonus with Linux is that she has a secure environment within which
to execute financial transactions on the Internet, with very little worry that
passwords and account numbers will be stolen by hackers. Mark Shuttleworth is
performing a public service of immense value.
Angus Fox 1 November, 2010 04:04
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I'm starting to see the mobile browser stats skewing the results for desktop browsers; iPhone usage appears to be larger than Linux browsing, for example, but NetmarketShare doesn't break out iPhone from desktop Safari, so we may need some better stats - but I'm not sure you can really call 59% dwindling (decreasing yes, but I think dwindle would require being say less than any other browser?)
And while I'm sure the Avatar teamed used a whole range of different systems, they used a significant amount of Mac and PC software; Adobe have been trumpeting it for a while http://www.adobe.com/cfusion/showcase/index.cfm?casestudyid=837897&event=casestudydetail&loc=en_us
It really is a heterogenous world.
M
Simon Bisson and Mary Branscombe 8 November, 2010 08:56
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